DÉJÀ
VU!
By
Uri Avnery, 28.1.06 (Second Article)
IF
ARIEL
Sharon had not been in a deep coma, he would have jumped out of his bed for
joy.
The
Hamas victory fulfils his most ardent hopes.
For
a whole year now, he did everything possible to undermine Mahmoud Abbas. His
logic was quite obvious: The Americans wanted him to negotiate with Abbas. Such
negotiations would inevitably have lead to a situation that would have
compelled him to give up almost all of the West Bank. Sharon had no intention
of doing so. He wanted to annex about half of the territory. So he had to get
rid of Abbas and his moderate image.
During
the last year, the situation of the Palestinians got worse from day to
day. The actions of the occupation made normal life and commerce impossible.
The West Bank settlements were continuously enlarging. The Wall which cuts off
about 10% of the West Bank was nearing completion. No important prisoners were
released. The aim was to impress on the Palestinians that Abbas is weak
("a chicken without feathers", as Sharon put it), that he cannot achieve
anything, that offering peace and observing a cease-fire leads nowhere.
The message to the Palestinians was clear: "Israel
understands only the language of force."
Now the Palestinians have put in power a party that
speaks this language.
WHY DID Hamas win?
Palestinian elections, like German ones, consist of two
parts. Half the members of parliament are elected on straight party lists (like
in Israel), the other half are elected individually in their districts. This
gave Hamas a huge advantage.
In the party lists elections, Hamas won with only a
slight majority. This would suggest that as far as the general political line
is concerned, the majority is not far from Fatah - two states, peace with
Israel.
Many of the votes given to Hamas had nothing to do with
peace, religion and fundamentalism, but with protest. The Palestinian
administration, run almost exclusively by Fatah, is tainted with corruption.
The "man in the street" felt that the people on top don't care about
him. Fatah was also blamed for the terrible situation created by the
occupation.
Also, the glory of the martyrs and the indomitable fight
against the immensely superior Israeli army added to the popularity of Hamas.
In the personal-regional elections, the situation of
Hamas was even better. Hamas had more creditable candidates, untainted by
corruption. Its party machine was far superior, its members far more
disciplined. In every district, there were several Fatah candidates competing
with each other. After the death of Yasser Arafat, there is no strong leader
capable of imposing unity. Marwan Barghouti, who could perhaps have done the
job, is held in an Israeli prison - another big Israeli gift for Hamas.
PEOPLE WHO believe in conspiracy theories
can assert that it is all part of a devious Israeli plan.
Some people even believe that Hamas was an Israeli
invention right from the beginning. That is, of course, a wild exaggeration.
But it is indeed the case that in the years before the first intifada, the
Islamic organization was the only Palestinian group that had practically a free
run in the occupied territories.
The logic went like this: Our enemy is the PLO. The
Islamists hate the secular PLO and Yasser Arafat. So we can use them against
the PLO.
Moreover, while all political institutions were banned,
and even Palestinians who worked for peace were arrested for carrying out
illegal political activity, no one could control what was happening in the
mosques. "As long as they are praying, they are not shooting," was
the innocent opinion in the Israeli military government.
When the first intifada broke out at the end of
1987, this was proved wrong. Hamas was formed, partly in order to compete with
the Islamic Jihad fighters. Within a short time, Hamas became the core of the
armed uprising. But for almost a year, the Israeli Security Service did not act
against them. Then policy changed and Sheik Ahmed Yassin, the spiritual leader,
was arrested.
All this happened more through stupidity than design. Now
the Israeli government is faced with a Hamas leadership that was democratically
elected by the people.
WHAT NOW? Well, a strong feeling of deja
vu.
In the 70s and 80s, the Israeli government declared that
it would never ever negotiate with the PLO. They are terrorists. They have a charter
that calls for the destruction of Israel. Arafat is a monster, a second Hitler.
So, never, never, never ---
In the end, after much bloodshed, Israel and the PLO
recognized each other and the Oslo agreement was signed.
Now we are hearing the same tune again. Terrorists.
Murderers. The Hamas charter calls for the destruction of Israel. We shall
never never never negotiate with them.
All this is very welcome to Sharon's Kadima party, which
openly calls for the unilateral annexation of territory ("Fixing the
borders of Israel unilaterally"). It will help the Likud and the Labor
party hawks whose mantra is "We have no partner for peace", meaning -
to hell with peace.
Gradually, the tone will change. Both sides, and the
Americans, too, will climb down from the tall tree. Hamas will state that it is
ready for negotiations and find some religious basis for this. The Israeli
government (probably headed by Ehud Olmert) will bow to reality and American
pressure. Europe will forget its ridiculous slogans.
In the end, everybody will agree that a peace, in which
Hamas is a partner, is better than a peace with Fatah alone.
Let's pray that not too much blood is spilled before that
point is reached.